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Country Outlook

Bangladesh, as a country, precisely abridges the key attributes of the emerging South Asian markets and ranks among the fastest growing markets of South East Asia. According to global experts, Bangladesh is poised to become a middle income country by 2021; at present, the country fares well with a USD 220 Billion economy, 159.9 Million population  of which 50% are less than 25 years, a thriving middle income segment and a stable GDP growth of above 5% over the last decade.  Bangladesh's growth has been resilient during the 2008-09 global financial crisis and recent global recession. The country aspires to become the regional manufacturing hub with a pool of competitive labour. Bangladesh is targeting to be a developed country by 2041.

Bangladesh has successfully completed its MDG targets and now concentrating for SDGs. The country has its 7th Five Year Plan( 2016-2020), goals of which is aligned with the SDGs.

Bangladesh is closely working for addressing Climate Change issues and has adopted its Strategy.

Bangladesh has achieved Ba3 (Moody's) stable rating for consecutive years (2014and Bangladesh's country rating by Moody’s is currently higher than that of Sri Lanka (B1). The current macroeconomic situation in thecountry is characterized by a manageable fiscal deficit and low current account deficit of BDT 97,85.3 m  as per Budget 2016-17. The stable macroeconomic situation is an outcome of a mixture of prudent monetary and fiscal policies that are being pursued. The Current account balance of BD in FY 2015-16 US$ 2934 million.This reflects the country’s continued high growth in exports, increased flows of remittances and moderate growth in money supply.

Bangladesh Economy: at a glimpse

As per the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, GDP growth rate has reached 7.05%. For the first time, Bangladesh has achieved this growth rate with a vision to stable on it. Bangladesh's Ba3 rating reflects stable and strong growth performance and modest debt burden- Moody's

GDP total:
 

$ 219.61 Billion or BDT 17295.7 Billion (at current market prices 2015-16)
 

GDP per capita:
 

$ 1373.49 or BDT 108172   (at current market prices 2015-16)
 

GDP growth rate (%):
 

7.05(at current market prices 2015-16)

Total exports:
 

$ 21.27 Billion or BDT 1675.4 Billion  (2015-16)
 

Total imports:
 

$ 25.27 Billion or BDT 1990.5 Billion  (2015-16)
 

Foreign exchange reserves:

$ 29.131 Billion (2015-16) needs to be updated

Inflation (in %)

6.01 (2015-16)

Domestic Savings

$ 52.47 Billion   or BDT 4132.3 Billion (2015-16)

Investment

$ 64.52 Billion  or BDT 5081.3  Billion (2015-16)

Source: Bangladesh Economic Review 2016

Bangladesh: Trends of Major Macroeconomic and Social Indicators

 

 Table 01: Trends of major macroeconomic and social indicators

Indicators

FY 09-10

FY 10-11

FY 11-12

FY 12-13

FY 13-14

FY 14-15

FY 15-16

Population (Million)

147.8

149.7

151.6

153.7

155.8

157.9

159.9

Income (GNI per capita in US Dollar)

685

777

884

991

1096

1219

1374

Foreign Exchange Reserves (Million US Dollar)

10750

10912

10364

15315

21558

25025

29131

Source: Bangladesh Economic Review 2016

 

Bangladesh Yesterday

Bangladesh Today and Tomorrow

  • Henry Kissinger famously dubbed the country a 'basket case' at its birth in 1971
     
  • Heavily dependent on imported food
     
  • Highly vulnerable to national disasters and external shocks
     
  • 85% of the development budget is from Foreign Aid
     
  • Jute, tea and shrimp were the main sources of export earnings
     
  • Total export earnings USD 0.4 Billion
     
  • Population 71.5 Million (1974)
     
  • Labour force participation rate by gender (%)
    National 43.8%
    Male 80.4%
    Female 4.1%

 

 


 

 

 

  • Kissinger's 'Basket Case' Bangladesh Targets 8% Growth – Bloomberg
     
  • Bangladesh has maintained an impressive track record of growth and development. In the past decade, the economy has grown at nearly 6% per year, and human development went hand-in-hand with economic growth. Poverty dropped by nearly a third, coupled with increased life expectancy, literacy, and per capita food intake. More than 15 Million Bangladeshis have moved out of poverty since 1992. - World Bank
     
  • Bangladesh is now self sufficient in food
     
  • Only 0.3% of the GDP is now from the foreign donation - Bangladesh Economic Review 2016
     
  • Second largest exporter of RMG in the world - World Trade Organization, January 2013
     
  • ‘Bangladesh is drawing companies such as General Electric Co. (GE) and International Business Machines Corp’-Bloomberg
     
  • Labour participation rate by gender (%)
    National 57.1%
    Male 81.7%
    Female 33.5%
    Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics 2013
  • “Bangladesh is an unsung hero,” Atiur Rahman said in a report of Bloomberg on April 18, 2011. “If we could get some additional help in terms of infrastructure development and connectivity, we will do far better. We are in a buoyant mood.”

 

Private Sector Outlook

Bangladesh: a country with a vibrant private sector

The export-oriented industries, in particular ready-made garments, propelled the manufacturing sector to new heights, with a vibrant private sector taking advantage of the low unit labour costs to expand into new markets. Finally, the service sector has gained momentum from relatively strong domestic demand, bolstered by remittances and new policy initiatives allowing more private participation and increased competition. "Things look positive for Bangladesh" according to Naoyuki Shinohara, Deputy Managing Director of IMF(update please)The private sector turns the wheel of economic activities of the country, aided by a liberal export oriented economic policy. Bangladesh has gradually transformed herself into an assembling and manufacturing heart, seeking for rapid expansion of the service sector. Private investment in FY 2015-16 stands at BDT 3767.5 Billion( USD 47.84 Billion) compared to public investment of BDT 1313.8 Billion (USD 16.68 Billion) in the same year. The private sector component as a percentage of GDP has increased from 16.8% from the FY2001-02 to 21.8 % in the FY 2015-16.

Table 03: Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Investment and Savings (BDT Billion)

Item/Sectors

FY 09-10

FY 10-11

FY 11-12

FY 12-13

FY 13-14

FY 14-15

FY 15-16

GDP (at current market prices)

7975.4

9158.3

10552.0

11989.2

13436.7

15158.0

17295.7

Gross Investment (at current prices)

(i)        Public

 

(ii)       Private

2093.3

372.8

 

1720.5

2511.3

481.5

2029.8

2982.3

608.0

2374.2

3403.7

796.2

2607.5

3839.9

879.9

2960.0

8478.7

1034.0

3344.7

5081.3

1313.8

3767.5

Gross Domestic Savings

1665.1

1897.6

2239.5

2642.0

2968.2

3358.8

4132.3

Agriculture and Forestry

1109.9

1254.7

1388.8

1487.6

1639.7

1765.0

1892.7*

Manufacturing

(a) Large and Medium Scale

(b) Small Scale

1285.7

 

1016.2

 

269.5

1465.0

 

1164.5

 

300.4

1679.2

 

1344.0

 

335.3

1971.3

 

1584.5

 

386.8

2232.2

 

1803.8

 

428.0

 

 

2544.8

 

2060.0

 

484.9

2922.8

 

2384.0

 

538.9

Services

(i) Wholesale & retail trade

(ii) Hotel & restaurants

(ii) Financial intermediary

(iv) Real estate, renting & business activities

(v) Education

 

 

1066.1

 

70.28

 

234.5

 

 

544.3

 

182.6

 

 

1213.3

 

82.3

 

275.5

 

 

601.2

 

213.9

 

 

1374.0

 

97.6

 

363.2

 

 

687.2

 

250.5

 

 

1545.8

 

112.6

 

422.4

 

 

788.2

 

284.3

 

 

1725.8

 

130.4

 

485.6

 

 

912.3

 

327.7

 

 

1925.9

 

149.3

 

557.6

 

 

106.1

 

376.2

 

 

2144.1

 

170.61

 

628.8

 

 

124.0

 

451.3

Source:Bangladesh Economic Review 2016 * Temporary

Major Export sectors of Bangladesh (Export Performance) Value in USD million

Products

2009-2010

2010-11 

2011-2012

2012-13

2015-2016

  2014-2015

A. Primary Commodities (Chapter 1-24)

687.53

958.98

1001.12

1079.58

1131.83

1154.08

b) Frozen Fish (0300, 0302, 0303, 0307)

89.12

133.53

108.05

57.99

47.07

49.08

c) Shrimps & Crabs  (0306)

348.28

477.83

471.67

454.93

472.37

509.72

d) Others

7.78

13.68

18.70

30.92

7.19

6.42

(2) Agricultural Products (04-24)

242.35

333.94

402.70

535.74

596.06

586.05

a) Tea (0902)

5.65

3.20

3.38

2.44

1.83

2.63

b) Vegetables (07)

46.84

71.73

77.43

110.34

104.34

103.24

c) Tobacco (24)

52.26

70.88

68.74

60.18

54.98

68.45

d) Cut Flower & Foliage (06)

39.84

42.89

50.46

41.43

4.73

11.36

e) Fruits (08)

17.37

37.68

57.16

71.89

20.23

38.48

f) Spices (0910)

6.94

9.24

13.68

21.13

29.06

23.24

g) Dry Food (19)

20.95

29.37

37.19

45.24

96.04

94.25

h) Others

52.50

68.95

94.66

183.09

284.85

244.40

B. Manufactured Commodities (Chapter 25-98)

15517.12

21969.24

23300.78

25947.78

32973.52

29922.32

(1) Cement, Salt, Stone Etc (25)

19.52

18.63

14.58

6.15

2.17

4.48

(2) Ores, Slag and Ash (Chapter 26)

11.47

29.18

27.96

22.37

6.30

8.55

(3) Petroleum bi Products (Chapter 27)

301.15

260.68

275.44

313.95

297.01

77.55

(4) Chemical Products (28-38)

102.87

104.76

103.01

93.01

123.65

111.92

a) Pharmaceuticals (30)

40.97

44.27

48.25

59.82

82.11

72.64

b) Chemical Fertilizer (31)

38.55

39.53

17.64

 

0.05

0.05

c) Cosmetics (33)

0.28

0.33

1.06

0.77

1.36

1.50

d) Others

23.07

20.63

36.06

32.42

40.13

37.73

(5) Plastic Products ( 39)

50.63

68.76

88.69

84.51

89.00

100.57

a) PVC Bags (3923)

27.96

27.26

31.26

32.00

31.24

36.63

b) Plastic Waste (3915)

15.69

31.58

43.42

39.09

22.41

32.35

c) Others

6.98

9.92

14.01

13.42

35.35

31.59

(6) Rubber (Chapter 40)

9.69

20.66

16.23

13.57

23.53

20.18

(7) Leather & Leather Products (41-43 & 6403)

226.10

297.83

330.16

399.73

1160.95

1130.51

(b) Leather Products (42-43)

29.06

55.42

99.36

161.62

388.22

249.16

(8) Wood & Wood Products (Chapter 44-45)

2.18

1.29

1.25

1.71

5.92

3.54

(9) Handicrafts (Chapter 46)

3.79

4.47

4.78

6.16

10.01

8.72

(10) Pulp (Chapter 47)

0.03

0.01

 

0.01

0.05

0.00

(11) Paper & Paper Products (chapter 48)

18.88

26.33

27.75

33.73

42.16

37.3

(12) Printed Materials (49)

1.62

1.66

1.58

1.39

1.02

0.85

(13) Silk (Chapter 50)

0.03

0.03

0.01

0.18

0.02

0.04

Source: Export Promotion Bereau

Major Import Sectors of Bangladesh:

Major Commodities

2000-01

2001-02

2002-03

2003-04

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14

2014-

15

1. FOOD GRAINS

349

186

409

431

574

418

581

1410

882

837

1911

901

726

1465

1574

    i.Rice

172

15

211

144

262

117

180

874

239

75

830

288

30

347

555

    ii. Wheat

177

171

198

287

312

301

401

536

643

761

1081

613

696

1118

1019

2. Milk & cream

62

59

61

61

86

73

83

137

96

106

161

221

214

289

310

3.Spices

15

13

32

30

42

32

76

80

62

109

127

138

118

183

215

4. Oil seeds

64

72

64

73

86

90

106

136

159

130

103

177

242

508

354

5.Edible oil

218

251

364

471

441

473

583

1006

865

1050

1067

1644

1402

1761

1574

6. Pulsesall sorts

86

88

145

120

159

164

195

327

234

350

292

243

422

455

394

7. Sugar

46

23

104

110

220

124

294

396

413

650

654

1177

731

902

743

8.Clinker

106

150

144

139

170

210

240

347

314

333

446

504

487

619

596

9.Crude petroleum

273

242

267

252

350

604

524

695

584

535

923

987

1102

929

854

10. POL

566

481

620

770

1252

1400

1709

2058

1997

2021

3186

3922

3642

4070

3371

11. Chemical

339

335

353

406

510

580

668

890

960

972

1254

1210

1302

1498

156

9

12.Pharmaceutical products

33

39

44

45

41

50

49

62

80

103

116

119

119

120

112

13. Fertilizer

129

107

109

150

332

342

357

632

955

717

1241

1381

1188

1026

1242

14. Dyeing, tanning etc. materials

91

87

86

109

132

148

161

218

259

275

333

375

399

538

555

15.Plastics and rubber articles thereof

261

250

281

367

477

523

643

808

840

966

1302

1366

1366

1793

1845

16. Rawcotton

360

312

393

583

666

742

858

1212

1291

1439

2689

2084

2005

2426

2275

17. Yarn

322

283

270

323

393

501

582

691

792

718

1391

1384

1356

1506

1594

18. Textile andarticles thereof

1291

1063

1106

1295

1571

1728

1892

1892

2099

1986

2680

3023

3273

3584

3678

19. Staplefibre

39

39